According to the report, there is about 85% chance that the year will be the second warmest.
According to data released this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this year is increasingly becoming the second or third warmest calendar year on the planet since the start of temperature data collection in 1880.
This reflects the growing influence of long-term anthropogenic global warming and is particularly noteworthy because this year there was no strong El Nino in the tropical Pacific. Such events are usually associated with the hottest years, as they increase the global temperature of the ocean and add a large amount of heat to the atmosphere through the Pacific Ocean, the largest in the world.
According to a new report released on Monday, the probability that this year will be the second warmest in the NOAA dataset is about 85%, and the probability that it will drop to No. 3. In general, although this is practically accurate (the probability that 2019 will be in the top five warmest years for the entire globe, exceeding 99%.
NOAA found that the average global land and ocean surface temperature in October was 1.76 degrees (0.98 degrees Celsius) higher than the average level of the 20th century, only 0.11 degrees from the record-warm October set in 2015 year.
It is noteworthy that the 10 warmest October days have occurred since 2003, and the five warmest such months since 2015.
October 2019 was the 43rd to October in a row to be warmer than the average in the 20th century, and the 418th month in a row warmer than the average. This means that any person under the age of 38 has not experienced a year steeper than the global average.
This year, global land and ocean temperatures rose 1.69 degrees (0.94 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average, only 0.16 degrees lower than the record-warm year set in 2016, set in NOAA.
Other agencies that track global temperatures may estimate 2019 a little differently than NOAA, although their overall data is likely to be similar. NASA, for example, interpolates temperatures across a disparate Arctic, suggesting that temperatures in the region are similar to their closest observation point. NOAA, on the other hand, leaves part of the Arctic outside its data.
Given that the Arctic is heating more than twice as fast as in the rest of the world, this means that NOAA data can slightly underestimate global temperatures, although this will not be much.
As an illustration of the differences that might arise between monitoring agencies, the European Union's Climate Change Service, Copernicus, rated October as the hottest such month on Earth, slightly ahead of October 2016. On the other hand, NASA and NOAA took second place on their October lists,
Copernicus uses computer-simulated data to monitor the planet’s climate in near real time compared to ground-based weather stations that NASA and NOAA rely on, which can be prone to errors due to their exact location and other problems. However, both agencies are working on adjusting their records to resolve such issues.
In the end, what’s important is the long-term trend for many years and decades, and it shows a clear, sharp leap, which, as scientists have shown, can only be explained by an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.
Human activities, namely the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, for energy production, are the main sources of greenhouse gases.
According to NOAA, record-high warm October temperatures existed in different parts of the northern and western Pacific Ocean, northeastern Canada, as well as in different parts of the South Atlantic, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, Indian Ocean and South America.
The only region with a record low temperature for the month was in the western United States, where most of the Rockies were record cold for a month. Interestingly, despite the absence of declared El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean, global average sea surface temperatures took second place in history in record months, being less than one tenth of a degree after the record year of 2016 when an intense El Nino event was observed.
The oceans absorb the vast majority of the additional heat injected into the climate system due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases, while the heat content measured below the surface reaches record levels.
(With the exception of the headline, this story was not edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated channel.)
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