Jacob Rees-Mogg uncovered the “major flaw” in the recent Brexit Treasury forecast, which he says makes the document “useless.” MP Brexiteer noted that global trends were not modeled in the report. Speaking to the House of Commons, Mr. Rees-Mogg said: “I’m sure my honorary friend recalls the wild inaccuracy of the Treasury’s forecasts before the referendum, the punishment of Brexit and the increase in unemployment of 800,000 people. But isn't this document a serious drawback, since global trends have not been modeled, but it is estimated that 90 percent of future global economic growth will come from outside the European Union?
"And, without thinking, this forecast is useless."
To which Mel Strid, the Treasury’s financial secretary, replied: “May I make two points to the honorable gentleman.
“First of all, this is not a treasury report as such, it is involved, as I just stated, discussed and participated in the whole government.
“Regarding the question of future trade deals, he will find a person buried in detail that in fact assumptions were made about future trade deals with countries such as the United States, China and India.
Comments come as Whitehall divisions say the UK will be economically worse off after Brexit, regardless of whether Theresa May’s deal is supported or the country leaves without a divorce from the EU.
According to the findings of the government, withdrawal from the EU according to government plans could cut UK GDP to 3.9 percent over the next 15 years.
But leaving without a deal can lead to the fact that over the same period, GDP will reach 9.3%.
The document does not contain data on the possible impact on the economy, but independent experts said that by the 2030s, GDP will be about 3.9 percent of GDP, which far exceeds the current UK contribution to EU budgets.
Meanwhile, the Long-Term Economic Analysis document found that government loans could be increased by 119 billion pounds by 2035 if the UK leaves the EU without a deal and to 26.6 billion pounds according to a scenario similar to Mrs. May.
The 83-page document was compiled by officials from Whitehall departments, including the Treasury, EU Exit, Industry, Environment, International Trade and the Department of the Interior.
Chancellor Philip Hammond admitted that all possible Brexit options would make Britain economically poorer than the rest of the EU.
But he insisted that the Prime Minister’s plan, agreed by EU leaders at a summit in Brussels last Sunday, “minimizes” economic damage.