What a difference a year. In fact, investors could not be mistaken in 2017: no matter what products they invested, at the end of the year the income was more or less high. In the current year, the opposite is also true: almost all asset classes go to negative performance.
At least a quarter of a century, you need to go back to find such a constellation: today, both stock and bond markets around the world are on lower prices. In addition, investments in oil and other commodities or in emerging market currencies should also be suppressed. Even bitcoin prices are breaking.
one, after they soared in the last year is still cool.
And the so-called safe havens? They also provide little protection against losses:
Government bonds in the United States and gold were in demand during the largest market turmoil, for example, in October, but their balance sheet for 2018 remains negative.
very few exceptions – with a positive return from the current
1.5 percent – German government securities.
Diversification not catch
stock and bonds usually move in opposite directions. The first are gaining momentum and grow corporate profits
and the latter suffer a decline in prices due to rising interest rates. Conversely, bonds tend to rise in price in a smoothing economy, while stocks are falling.
This balancing mechanism is based on diversification strategies.
many investors whose portfolios therefore contain both stocks and bonds.
But a year later, such a guarantee will not go away. as
Deutsche Bank determined that at least 90%
so far, 70 asset classes have seen negative total revenue this year; Besides price changes, it also includes dividends and interest income. The worst record to date is 1920, when
84% of the 37 asset classes were in the loss zone. 2017
best investment year: only 1 percent of asset classes are closed in the red zone (all calculations were made in dollars).
At today's price level, the cumulative global losses in capital and bonds in the market have been more than $ 5 trillion since the beginning of the year.
This is the biggest recession since the financial crisis. In 2008, only stock markets shrank by more than 18 trillion, as the Financial Times had calculated. Although the bonds closed at that time, they never managed to close this huge “hole”.
Fundamental tide changes
Many observers see this year as a turning point in the era after the financial crisis. From 2008 to 2017, the main central banks pumped money into markets on the balance sheet, where he — in an increasingly desperate search for profitability — increased the demand for high-risk assets in the developing world
or in high-yield bonds of low-cap companies. Today, the flow has stopped: The US Federal Reserve has recently simplified monetary reserves more than many experts had expected, and the European Central Bank and its counterpart in Japan are also closing their gateways.
The change in flow has significantly changed the dynamics of the market: short-term dollar investments now give interest rates up to 3 percent, after earlier
almost nothing was discarded. Associated Dollar Pull Effect
recalled a lot of capital from emerging markets and seriously weakened their currencies. At the same time, investors are increasingly differentiated according to risk – as a result, risk premiums and profitability of debtors with questionable creditworthiness increase. Higher bond yields are accompanied by a drop in bond prices.
Stronger and frequent price fluctuations
Higher bond yields also make stocks less attractive than fixed-income investments. This happens at a time when there are signs of a slowdown in global economic activity and a slowdown in corporate income growth. Both fuels are skeptical of investors: are stocks still not overvalued even after recent price adjustments, given the gloomy and uncertain outlook?
Growing uncertainty among market players is not least reflected in the increased wave of waves in the market. exchanges, By mid-November, it was already possible to count 52 days, when the S & P 500, the world's most important stock market index in the United States, experienced price fluctuations of more than plus / minus 1 percent per trading day. Thus, the US stock market returned to the average average value – it was recorded in the super-investment year of 2017, in just eight days, when price fluctuations exceeded 1 percent. The fact that these times will not be repeated so quickly is probably one of the few reliable predictions for the coming year. (Editors ofmedia)
Created: 11/28/2018, 15:44 clock