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Palo Alto – The global epidemic of diabetes is increasing the demand for insulin. The need for calculations in Lancet diabetes and endocrinology (2018; doi: 10.1016 / S2213-8587 (18) 30303-6) by 2030 will increase by about 20%.
All people with type 1 diabetes must inject insulin if they want to survive. People with type 2 diabetes are initially treated with other medications. However, with a common disorder, insulin is often the only agent with satisfactory long-term levels of glucose in the blood (HbA).1c).
Insulin was the first genetically modified drug 40 years ago. Therefore, in theory, it can be produced in unlimited quantities. Prices are relatively high. There are only 3 manufacturers in the world (Novo Nordisk, Sanofi and Eli Lilly). Therefore, in poorer countries, many patients cannot afford treatment.
Currently, the deficit is most pronounced in Africa. In order to be able to treat all patients who need insulin, production should be increased 7 times, according to the team led by Sanjay Basu of Stanford University in Palo Alto, California: instead of the current 718,000 bottles by 2030 approximately 5, 1 million people.
In Asia, demand will also increase dramatically by 2030. Basu expects an increase of 26.5 million. Bottles per year.
There are currently 406 million people with type 2 diabetes worldwide, compared with 511 million by 2030. More than half of them then live in three countries: China (130 million), India (98) million) and the United States (32 million).
Basu estimates that global annual insulin requirements will increase by about 20% from 526 million bottles in 2018 to 634 million in 2030.
The need depends on which HbA1cTarget values should be sought. By today's standards, 7.4% of all type 2 diabetics are treated with insulin. B (diabetologically significant but complex) HbA1cThe target of 7.0% will require 15.5% of all people with insulin type 2 diabetes.
HbA1cThe value of 7% today is achieved only by a few people with type 2 diabetes. However, according to further calculations by Bass, he could have prevented the loss of many inactive years of life (DALY). Currently 262,884 DALYs have been lost because diabetics do not reach target levels. By 2030, this could be 331,101, if insulin was not available in sufficient quantities and at reasonable prices. © heat / aerzteblatt.de