- Spillage time
Singapore is expected to see slower economic growth in the third quarter than originally anticipated, according to a Reuters survey, as the manufacturing sector is facing problems with weak global demand and a widening trade dispute between the United States and China.
According to forecasts, in July-September, the country's forecasted GDP, taking into account gross domestic product (GDP), will grow by 4.2 percent compared to the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annual basis, a poll of 11 economists showed that below 4.7 percent of the growth observed in the advanced estimate, but still much stronger than in the second quarter, growth was 1.2 percent.
“It is expected that the final GDP in the third quarter will be revised downwards, given the lower-than-expected production volumes and monthly indicators for such service sectors as bank loans and real estate sales showing lower rates,” said economist Maybank Kim Eng Securities Li Yu.
Compared with the previous year, GDP growth in the third quarter was projected at 2.4 percent, which is slightly below preliminary estimates by 2.6 percent and lower than 4.1 percent in the second quarter. It also marked the third quarter in a row of softer annual growth.
While the economy of the city and the city grew strongly in 2018 and continued to move sensibly in the first months of the year, stresses began to arise in recent months.
Singapore’s central bank warned that a hot trade war between the United States and China, one of the city’s main trading partners, could be detrimental to the domestic economy.
Growth in exports to China slowed for 5 consecutive months, prompting concerns about the forecast, as Sino-US trade tensions showed no signs of weakening.
“We are seeing a slowdown throughout 2019,” said Steve Cochrane, chief economist at Moody's Asia Asia Pacific Pacific, adding that mitigation reflects a cooling of global growth.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry predicts a 2.5-2.5 percent year-over-year growth in 2018. The production and export of electronics was one of the main growth factors in Singapore last year, when GDP grew at the fastest pace in the last three years.
But this year, electronics exports declined this year, and factory production unexpectedly declined in September.
“This year there has been a shift in the structure of exports. Previously, it focused on electronics, but now it has moved to the non-electronic sector, for example, to pharmaceutical companies, ”said Cochrane.
See also: Singapore is the second most competitive economy in the world.