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Tomorrow's surprise from the Fed?



According to ABN AMRO, the FOMC is expected to keep the policy on Wednesday Wednesday, and assumes that the focus will be on any changes in the statement and the first press conference of President Powell in 2019.

“We believe that the number of voters in 2019 will be bluer than in 2018, especially in the face of slowing growth prospects. This confirms our view that the rate increase cycle has been completed.

We expect minimal changes in reporting at this stage, as the market has already advanced significantly in order to no longer expect an increase in rates this year. Although we believe that the Fed has completed the rate hike, we believe that the tightening of prejudice will continue in the wording of the statement (that is, a further gradual rate hike is expected). as of the end of the last cycle of rate increases in 2006–2007

During the question and answer session, President Powell will almost certainly be asked a question about the current imbalance in the Fed's balance sheet. At previous press conferences, he avoided these problems, thereby minimizing the effect of balance. Recently, however, along with other Fed officials, he was more open-minded, saying that, although they did not see little evidence that this had a significant impact on the economy’s markets, they were able to make policy adjustments. "

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