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Dollar corresponded to the comments of Jerome Powell, who were cautious on the part of investors. Yesterday, the Fed chairman said yesterday at the New York Economic Club that interest rates are now close to the “neutral” level, while in October he said that they are still far away. Powell, however, did not mention either a slowdown in the economy or the hypothesis of a pause in key rate increases.
The pound fell against the euro Yesterday, after the publication of the report of the Bank of England, which states that exit from the UK without an agreement and without a transitional period will lead to a fall in the pound sterling by 25%, and GDP – by 2023 more low – 7.75%10.5% compared with forecasts published in May 2016.
Yen rebounded this morning after the release of excellent retail sales in October (+ 3.5% per annum), which indicates an acceleration of growth in the fourth quarter.
brant yesterday fell to a 13-month low. Oil reserves rose during the tenth week in a row.
Today, the main report will be a report on the financial stability of the ECB, a preliminary consumer price index in Germany, a hearing from Teresa May, the Brexit parliamentary commission and the federal protocols of the day’s events, not forgetting the G20!
NEWS IT'S MORNING
Fed, Jerome Powell feared to announce that interest rates are now close to the “neutral” level, while in October he announced that they are still far away. Powell, however, did not mention either a slowdown in the economy or the hypothesis of a pause in key rate increases. Jerome Powell said that growing debt and lower credit quality for some US companies were one of the key weaknesses in the US financial system.
BrexitAccording to BOE, Brexit without an agreement and without a transition period will lead to a drop in the British pound by 25%, GDP at the end of 2023, which is 7.75% lower by 10.5% than the forecasts published in May 2016. The report shows that a close relationship will allow the pound to estimate in the short term from 2% to 5%.
EU / US, Donald Trump announced his intention to introduce customs duties on car imports to the United States to protect the US auto industry.
Commercial warThe US administration said Wednesday that China had not made any "proposals for substantial reform" of its business practices.
Japan, Growth in retail sales was 3.5% in October (year to year), a record level since December 2017.
UkraineTwo Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov are blocked by Russian ships, the Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine said this morning.
PURPOSE OF THE DAY:
Macroeconomic calendar November 29 2018 from DailyFX
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5 dates that can calm fear in stock markets
Since the beginning of November, major international stock market indices, such as the S & P 500, CAC 40 and Nikkei 225, support medium-term levels of technical support, above which the rally at the end of the year may be observed.
Oil prices fall to the bottom of new restocking, natural gas prices
Oil prices resumed their decline on Wednesday afternoon as a result of a report by the US Department of Energy (DOE), which refers to the further replenishment of crude oil stocks last week. This is the tenth week in a row, when oil reserves rose, and this was the fourth week in a row higher than expected (+ 3.577Mb vs. + 0.769Mb).
EUR / USD – DXY: Dollar strengthens ahead of Jerome Powell
The probability of three rate increases of 25 bp or more by December 2019 increased from 48% to 37% in one month. The main reason for this fall in expectations is the rise in the Fed rates faster than expected by the same economists at the beginning of the year.