Exchange Market in 2018
Shanghai index fell by 20% for the entire year. The market value of the two cities has evaporated by 14 trillion.
December 28, the two cities were closed, and in 2018 the transaction was completed with equity participation. As of yesterday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.44% on the day, closing at 2,493.9 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to 7,237.79 points.
Although both markets ended on the last trading day of 2018, from the point of view of the whole of 2018, under the influence of domestic leverage and the fall of US stocks, A's stocks fluctuated lower during the year. As of December 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 24.59% for the year, while the component index in Shenzhen fell by 34.42%.
The market value of the two cities fell by almost 30%.
According to Wande, the total number of listed companies in these two cities on the eve was 3567, and the total market value of the stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzhen was 48.67 trillion yuan. The number of listed companies increased by 82 this year, and the market value fell by 14.39 trillion yuan, a decrease of 29.56%.
According to Zhongdeng company statistics, the number of investors at the end of the A-share market in 2018 was 145 million, and the market value fell by 14.39 trillion yuan. The average loss of investors in A shares this year was 99,200 yuan.
In addition, the monthly turnover of the stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzhen as a whole showed a downward trend: in September, turnover fell to a minimum of 4.94 trillion yuan a year and then recovered.
In terms of the sector, the market capitalization of the 28 Shenwan industries was staggering, among them the smallest decline occurred in the banking sector, which fell by 11.96%. Media, mining, construction materials and other 12 sectors fell by more than 30%.
Of the stocks in 2018, out of all 3,500 stocks, only 296 stocks with an interest of about 8% achieved a positive return. According to Wind Data, more than 1,200 shares fell by more than 40%.
Jinli Permanent Magnet wins the very crown of cattle
Despite the fact that the overall performance of the A market was not very good, the shares still had significant growth: among them Jinli Permanent Magnet won the A-2018 shares in 20188%, and the other shares with the highest profit were Zhongshi technology. 712, Taiyong Long March, Green Power, Great Wall Military, Ruike laser, Tianfeng Securities, WuXi PharmaTech, Debon shares, etc.
Compared to most bullish stocks, bearish stocks with worse performance – * ST Bao Qian, * ST Fukong, Environmental Protection Shenwu, Jinya Technology, LeTV, * ST Huaxin, Orient, Jianrui Woeng, etc. Shares that fell more than 80%. In addition, if the first share is removed from the list because the share price is lower than 1 yuan for 20 consecutive days, and the first share that is excluded from the list on the basis of the “Implementation Measures for Significant Illegal Deletion from Listing Companies” becomes This year's A-share is "Pit King".
In 201, a total of six companies left the market due to three-year losses, mergers and other inconsistencies, more than 5 companies excluded from lists in 2017, and 2 companies excluded from lists in 2016. Six: Shares of Zhonghong, Sinotrans Development, Ether Carbon, Jin, Kunming and Deep Base B.
It is worth noting that in 2018 there were two “pennies” on the A share market, among which Jinya Technology's share price was 0.77 yuan, and ST Hairun price was 0.87 yuan. Zhonghong retired from the market to a closing price of 0.22 yuan, updating the lowest price record in the history of stocks A.
In addition to the low indexes and individual stocks, the IPO index in 2018 also reached its lowest level in the last 10 years. So far in 2018, 199 companies have issued IPOs with an equity stake, and the company has 111 clubs. 55.78%, veto 29.65%.
Since the beginning of 2018, the balance between the two cities in Shanghai and Shenzhen has tended to decline. At the beginning of the year, the balance of two types of financing amounted to 1,029.8 billion Yuan, and in the middle of the year – 99.4 billion Yuan. By the end of the year, this figure was further reduced to 760 billion yuan.
The stock market will fluctuate next year.
Minsheng Securities believes that in the coming year, the valuation adjustment comes to an end, and the future index will slowly decline along profits. A market turnaround based on a turning point of profit may be overdue, and a rebound based on a second oversold will come early.
When Shenwan Hongyuan Securities predicted the trend of the stock market next year, she also called 2019 the “only year” after a rapid market downturn. Structural opportunities will increase compared to 2018.
CITIC Securities proposed that Share A should begin the next three to five years of cattle resurgence in 2019. Under the influence of profit, politics and liquidity, the market is expected to consolidate in the first quarter of next year, and the second quarter will gradually enter the upstream stage of profit and valuation to restore resonance.
CICC predicts that from the current year to the end of 2019, a continuous disclosure of risks and opportunities will be observed on the A share market, and time is crucial. The overall valuation of A shares was low. As the market interest rate falls, the basis for the expansion of valuation has already been laid initially. In the future, the potential for growth and reform is expected to stabilize, with increased efficiency and viability. In addition, long-term funds, such as foreign capital and real estate funds, may be attracted to support improved liquidity of A shares. (Reporter Zhang Xiyuan)
■ Related news
The exchange rate of the yuan against the US dollar fell by 5.43% for the entire year.
On December 28, the onshore yuan against the US dollar closed at 6.8658 with a cumulative decline of 3,538 basis points, or 5.43%. The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was fixed at 6.8632. In 2018, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar was adjusted to 3,553 basis points, which is 5.18% less. Experts, as a rule, expect that next year the easing of pressure on the RMB exchange rate will weaken and the general currency market will be stable. (Reporter Gu Zhijuan)
The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar for the year fell by 5.18%.
From the last trading day of 2017 to the last trading day of 2018, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2018 fell by 3,538 basis points, or 5.43%.
This year, the bilateral wave of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar on the coast increased, and the annual amplitude reached 7261 basis points. At the beginning of the year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to rise until February 7, reaching a peak of 6.2519, the highest since the stock exchange reform in August 2015. At the end of April, the coastal yuan entered the depreciation channel, which at the end of June fell below 6.6, remaining above 6.8 in August and reached 6.9780 on October 31, setting a new minimum for more than ten years. Since then, the yuan has grown slightly, and in December it remained below 6.9.
According to the China Foreign Exchange Trade Center, on December 28, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar was 6.8632, an increase of 262 basis points from the previous trading day.
On January 2, 2018, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar was declared at the level of 6.5079. In 2018, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar was adjusted to 3,553 basis points, which is 5.18% less.
The central bank has repeatedly shot a stable rate
When the RMB exchange rate against the dollar approached 6.90, the central bank resumed its countercyclical factor. In addition, the central bank also resumed its long-term foreign exchange risk reserve policy. On August 3, the central bank announced that from August 6, 2018, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of the business of forward sales will be adjusted from 0 to 20%.
On November 7, the central bank expanded the resolution and issued notes to the central bank in Hong Kong. The central bank said that issuing central bank bills could enrich Hong Kong-based financial products with a high credit rating in RMB and improve the yield curve of Hong Kong bonds in RMB. The industry believes that the issue of central bank bills on the offshore yuan market is a means of regulating the liquidity of offshore yuan in order to raise interest rates on the offshore market and stabilize the yuan exchange rate.
In a report on the implementation of monetary policy in the third quarter, published on November 9, the central bank indicated that the series of measures of the central bank had given positive signals and achieved positive results. Market expectations were mostly stable, and the RMB exchange rate remained mostly stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
RMB weakening pressure will weaken next year
Zhou Maohua, an analyst with the financial market department at Everbright Bank, expects the overall yuan rate to remain stable next year, with a slightly stronger trend and less volatility than this year. From the perspective of the external environment, it is expected that the Fed's interest rate hike will slow down, and the Chinese-American economy will start convergence this year. In terms of the internal environment, it is expected that China’s economy will stabilize within reasonable limits, and the monetary policy of the central bank will not be flooded, so the “stable” is still the main tone.
Wang Qing, principal macroeconomic analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, said the Fed lowered its expectations for an increase in interest rates in 2019 from an initial increase in interest rates three times to two. The slowdown in interest rate increases in the United States is a positive factor for the RMB exchange rate. The situation with rising interest rates and even a coup between China and the United States will be weakened, and the space for adjusting domestic monetary policy towards easing will also increase. The situation with cross-border capital flows will gradually improve, market confidence and investor sentiment will be restored, and the pressure on the decline of the yuan will be eased. (Reporter Zhang Xiyuan)