2018-11-29 03:00:25 Source: China Securities Journal
In response to the next stage of the bond market, proposed by CITIC Prudential Fund Manager, Xia Mei, said that at least until the end of the second quarter of next year, the bond market will continue to support the “slow cow” trend.
Yang Syamei believes that the continuing downward pressure on the macroeconomy creates the basis for further strengthening the bond market. At the same time, regardless of whether it is from the point of view of a “stable economy” or a downward pressure of social growth, the expectation of the continuation of a “wide loan” is obvious. Warming up, it will greatly help the investment in the bond market.
Yang Syamei said that after the release of data in the third quarter China's economic growth intensified, which further reduced risk appetite, which led to an increase in funds to increase the volume of bonds, which led to a rapid decline in interest rate bonds.
Xia Mamie also noted that under pressure from the economic downturn, the central bank will continue to maintain a relatively free monetary environment, which obviously contributes to the continued development of the bond market. However, Xia Mei also stressed that due to the recent rapid decline in profitability, if extreme market conditions are forced to “release water”, the yield curve of the bond market will gradually smooth out, and the decline in space will narrow.
“If you think about the market over the next six months as a big stage, you can divide it into three or four small stages. The first small stage of interest bonds is basically over, ”said Xia Ximei,“ but in the short term. ” While the decline in profitability has declined, there are still opportunities for medium-term and long-term profitability, narrowing time spreads and narrowing credit spreads, and there is hope that investors will participate in the next few stages. ”
It is worth noting that CITIC Prudential Jingtai Debt, which is currently released and will be headed by Xia Mei, is a medium-term and full-fledged credit connection. Being a net debt fund, CITIC Prudential Jingtai's debt-based strategy is based on: medium and high-grade credit bonds as the bottom position and proper distribution of some long-term bonds with good liquidity and high elasticity that are expected to benefit from this bond market . The speed curve gradually gets higher profits in the leveling process.
Yang Syamei said that in practice, a trilateral strategy for the strategy of duration, transfer and hedging strategy will be used to manage the debt base. As for the duration strategy, the total portfolio of the fund will last about 3 years, and it will be able to attack and retreat. Among them, a credit bond has a short term and is mostly protected, and a bond with an interest rate has a long duration and is mainly based on an offense. If there is a short-term reversal on the market, the recovery can be controlled by reducing the debt at an interest rate, reducing the duration and leverage. As for the carry trade strategy, the price of capital has a high probability of maintaining a low position, and the combination maintains a high leverage, fully using the transfer strategy to increase total income. As for the hedging strategy, if the market has a long-term reversal, it can also hedge risk through treasury bond futures, improve the creditworthiness of the portfolio, and increase portfolio returns.
(Source article: Journal of China Securities)