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This week the G20 transaction is not expected. This means a global recession, according to UBS economist



A summary of what Scott Barlow, market strategist and analyst for The Globe and Mail is reading online today

Global markets are pessimistic about the prospects for a trade deal between the US and China as a result of negotiations at the G20 meeting this week, which, according to UBS economists, is really bad news for investors around the world.

“Although UBS does not expect escalation, the unsuccessful meeting of President Donald Trump and Chinese Xi Jinping, which will lead to a new wave of tariffs, will mean“ serious ”changes in global GDP and market forecasts,” writes economic research director Arend Kaptein. in a note. If the trade war escalates, “we estimate global growth at 75 bp lower over the next six quarters and that the contours will resemble a mild “global recession” – a similar crisis in the eurozone, a collapse of oil in the mid-1980s and a “tequila” crisis of the 1990s, ”he wrote.

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"UBS: The Globe is moving towards a recession and a bear market if trade negotiations between the US and China fail this week" – CNBC

"Trump and C to make a deal?" Traders hold their breath ”- BNN Bloomberg

“@RobinWigg UBS with a big call. Predicts that global stock markets will fall by 20 percent if there is no trade agreement between the US and China "- (excerpt from the study) twitter

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Prominent strategists diverge sharply in their views on the outlook for stock markets if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates, as expected.

Andrew Gartveyt from Credit Suisse – optimist,

“In the 20th century, the“ Fed put ”worked well, and the Fed’s actions tended to help prevent recessions and reduce markets (three cuts in 1995 and 1998 led to strong market rally). However, he worked very poorly in the 21st century (except for the first 21-27 days after the first rate cut), and stocks on average fell by 11% three months later. We believe that in this case, the experience of 1995 and 1998 is more likely to be replicated … Financial conditions are now milder than during any first rate cut in the last five cycles of reduction. The economic momentum is better than the one that was observed when the Fed first lowered rates in previous cycles … The weakness of the dollar is key because it effectively exports US monetary policy, which forces central banks in emerging markets, the ECB and the Bank of Japan to decline "

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A bearish case comes from the American strategist Morgan Stanley Michael Wilson,

“The matter of material growth is becoming more complicated. We still believe that the US economy is experiencing a significant slowdown after excessive growth last year, and at present this slowdown is manifested in poor income growth and worsening economic conditions. If the Fed lowers rates, because it’s really the end of the cycle, and not just the Fed just insures against such an outcome, it has many other consequences for stock markets. Evidence is accumulating that this is rather the first than the second. ”

"@SBarlow_ROB Gartveyt believes that the Fed can save the day" – (excerpt from the study) twitter

"@SBarlow_ROB MS:" If the Fed cuts back rates, because it really is the end of the cycle, and not just the Fed simply insures itself from such an outcome, it will have many different consequences for stock markets. " – (excerpt from the study) twitter

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abstraction: “SpaceX controls its massive Falcon Heavy rocket in what Elon Musk called the most difficult launch of the company in the entire history” – (video) Bloomberg

Newsletter: “The biggest asset bubbles in history” – Globe Investor


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