SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian stocks jumped on Monday, as hints of progress in the trade confrontation with China and the United States provided a rare glimmer of optimism that at the end of the year for stocks in the world came a rapid fall.
However, survey data in China turned out to be uselessly mixed with a reduction in production activity for the first time in two years, despite the improvement in the services sector.
The mood became brighter when US President Donald Trump announced that on Saturday he had a "very good call" with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade issues, and said that "great progress has been made."
China’s state-owned media outlets were more restrained, saying that Xi hoped that negotiating groups would be able to meet each other halfway through and reach a mutually beneficial agreement.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the White House insisted that China receive more detailed information on how it can increase exports to the US and weaken the rules that stifle American firms there.
The MSCI index for shares of the Asia-Pacific region outside of Japan () added 0.2 percent, but still declined by 16 percent for the year. The future of the E-Mini for the S & P 500 () has strengthened by 0.68 percent.
The Japanese Nikkei () was closed for the holiday, ending the year with a loss of 12 percent.
In the entire region, the index of Chinese blue chips (), which lost a quarter of its value, became the worst indicator of the year. The only major market in the plus for the year was India, where BSE () was ahead by almost 6 percent.
This story was about the same all over the world: the vast majority of major stock indexes in the red.
The S & P 500 () lost almost 10 percent in December, the worst month since February 2009. This resulted in a decline of 15 percent for the quarter and 7 percent for the year.
“If you look at the markets, you can assume that the global economy is entering a recession,” said Robert Michel, investment director and head of the fixed income department at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
“However, although we agree that the world economy is in slower growth, we do not see an impending recession,” he added, in part because the Federal Reserve could provide a political cushion.
“Already, the Fed’s comments suggest that the end of the three-year path of normalizing politics is approaching,” said Michel.
Indeed, the futures of the Fed funds have largely devalued any increase in the following year and are now suggesting a point reduction by mid-2020.
The Treasury market clearly believes that the Fed is betting on the increase, while the yield on two-year securities () fell to 2.52 percent from a peak of 2.977 percent in November.
The $ 15.5 trillion market is approaching its largest monthly rally in 2-1 / 2 years, according to an index compiled by Bloomberg and Barclays (Lon :).
A sharp drop in yield has undermined the US dollar in recent weeks. In relation to the basket of currencies (), it should have been completed by December with a loss of 0.9 percent, but still increased over the year as a whole.
He also had a tough month against the yen with a loss of 2.8 percent, and last time he was trading at 110.36.
The euro ended the month on a more stable note of $ 1.1443 (), but still suffered losses of almost 5 percent for the current year.
This was trivial compared to the fall in oil prices in the last couple of months, when Brent has fallen by almost 40 percent since its peak in October.
At the beginning of Monday, the crude benchmark () rose 30 cents to $ 53.51 per barrel, but decreased by 20 percent over the year. US crude futures rose 24 cents to $ 45.57.
Gold ended the year on a high note after the rally by almost 5 percent last month to $ 1,279.06 an ounce