Level economic activity 2018 shows negative behavior from the second quarter, and the change in this trend in the short term is not expected. As noted Consulting in economics and regions (E & R), predicting that the first quarter of 2019 will follow the same path and will also be “complicated by the level of activity to continue sustainability.”
“Then in the best of scenarios, the best that can be expected is for the economy to stop falling and positive numbers appear” from the second quarter However, in 2019, as the authors of the report indicated, this would be a statistical rather than a tangible improvement for companies. I mean, Companies, especially SMEs, will not experience sustainable improvements. their heat sensation, "they said.
However, “if in the second half of the summer the new exchange rate and the dollar begin again, inflation, inflationary expectations and the interest rate, the level of activity may continue to fall even further until 2019”. "Our baseline scenario estimates and predicts a change in GDP in the range of -3.0 percent (2018) and -1.5 percent (2019)," they added.
And they continued: “In this sense, it is necessary to take into account that if GDP closed at a level of -3.0 percent this year, this indicator will leave a statistical resistance of -3.1 percent, which implies a very complicated statistical backpack to counter and endure According to their estimates, the level of activity at the end of 2019 will be about 3.7 percentage points lower than the level of activity at the end of 2015.
E & R specialists also warned that “private sector lending remains insufficient, interest rates will remain high during 2019 even under the most optimistic scenario.” “On the other hand, if a new round of exchange arises, the dollar will return to a jump, inflation expectations will rise again, inflation will jump out again, and the interest rate will still end on a higher threshold than the current one and on which it was fixed. last octoberthey added.
For Economa & Regions "in this scenario there will be less credit and more expensive than at present, the level of activity will suffer more than predicted." The truth is that we are relying on optimism from the economic team to change the coalition government in order to forecast inflation at 23 percent next year.
Meanwhile, there are several economists who have abandoned promises from the presidential administration, Mauricio Macri. Former Director of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), Aldo Pignanelli, predicts 2019 with 35 percent inflation. Jos Luis Espert, in turn, said: “This shows a slight slowdown in inflation, which allows us to think about inflation in 2019 is somewhat lower than in 2018, but by no means 23 percent.”