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The indicator for the uncovered falls to the minimum of the Sandleriz era



The interest rate on the current account fell to 59.59%. The decline was postponed to discount checks on the stock exchange and, with less force, on personal loans

The fall in interest rates, which accelerated the actions of the Central Bank this week, began to gradually affect the population. Over the past three days, the money body took from 56.60% to 54.89% the average rate that pays for Leliqs and prompted banks to reduce by 171 percentage points, the interest they charge companies for an advance on current account, to accept it on average up to 59.59% per year, the lowest level since the end of August last year.

The performance that the BCRA determines every day for its liquidity letters is an indicator of monetary policy, which also serves as a guide for the financial system. Thus, with each ascending or descending movement of this rate, the shortest credit lines are most dynamic for changes.

In fact, interest in advances on current accounts rose sharply from September to October, first when then Central Department President Luis Toto Caputo raised the rate to 60%, and then when Guido Sandleris faced a tight cash adjustment with rates of up to 73% per annum . Thus, the costs that companies pay for withdrawing uncovered money from their current accounts exceed 78% per year.,

Now, according to the average BCRA, this figure is 59.59%, the lowest level since August 30, when it was 47.2% manually. It should be noted that this is the annual nominal rate (TNA), since the total financial cost (CFT) is about 76%. Of course, at the height of tight monetary adjustment, this figure reached more than 100% annually.

The current account advance account agreement, commonly known as “discovered,” is the line most used by small and medium-sized enterprises to finance their daily cash. Due to the increase in interest rates, the volume of these loans in the first three months of the monetary adjustment fell by $ 29,781 million. USA, and in January remains stable.

Central game

One of the main factors that accelerated the fall in rates this week was the change made by the monetary agency in the way that Leliqs put up for auction on a daily basis. Strictly speaking, at the beginning of each round, he reports the estimated amount for placement, and then actually awards this figure. Not one weight more, but one weight less. Previously, on the other hand, he invested more money than indicated, and the drop in rates was very overwhelmed.

What does this change mean and how does it affect speed? Mainly because banks are now offering lower rates because of the fear of being out of court and not forcing them to pay their pesos. “BCRA has changed the method of trading. Now they declare the amount, and since the banks do not want to stay on the street, the rate decreases endogenously faster, ”explains Santiago Lopez Alfaro, partner of Delphos Investment.,

Where this influence was first reflected in the call market, there were loans between one-day banks, which are the thermometer of liquidity of the financial system. On Friday, this figure averaged 53.21%, whereas yesterday it was about 46% per year.

What prompted the monetary agency to accelerate the fall in interest rates was the nominal depreciation of the dollar, which until Monday of this week increasingly acted far from the zone of non-intervention and did not even react to BCRA purchases. During the week, with Leliqs auctions, a little less than 79,000 million pesos were entered, and it remains within the goal of zero growth in the monetary base to close another month with compliance.

Thus, with more pesos on the market and lower yields for pesos, the dollar did not take long to respond to the increase.

In parallel, the rate paid by SMEs for discount checks on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange also accompanied the trend marked by Central. According to the daily report of the Argentine securities market, on which these instruments operate, yesterday the discount rate of the guaranteed 30-day check was about 43.26% per annum and 43.10 for the 60-day period, which is low more than one percentage point from the previous week.

As for families, some reduction in rates began to be transferred to the cost of personal loans, although to a much lesser extent. According to the latest BCRA data, as of January 29, the average rate on these loans was 63.2%, almost at the same level as in previous days, but almost two points lower than they collected 10 days ago.

“In such lines as personal loans, we must wait for the consolidation of the rate cut before transferring it to customers. He is always sensitive to change, but not as sensitive as in the short term, ”they explain from a private bank.

Until it goes down

The city believes that the fall in rates will continue in the short term, but not as aggressive as this week. “We need to see how an increase in tariffs and transportation services affects inflation. It is still not very clear that he is going down, "- says the head of the local banking table." This is what determines that the decline in rates occurs in a sustainable way, "he adds.

The external context seems to play in favor of local assets. Despite the fact that it was almost impossible that the Federal Reserve was not going to change the rate yesterday, its confirmation gave a new impetus to the shares and bonds in pesos. This adds downward pressure on the dollar and can give the monetary agency more air to continue depreciating without fear of an impact on the exchange rate.

Be that as it may, and although the stakes are at a very high level, this week's cuts began to be passed on to families and companies, which is a key factor for the productive sector to begin to look up.

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