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The dollar fell 3.4% after the BCRA withdrew 106.300 million dollars in circulation in three days




Central returned to withdraw pesos from the market (closed the week, absorbing $ 105,000 million) without affecting the exchange rate for Sandleris, the peso is still "overreacting" to the blows Source: Archive


dollar

Yesterday it seemed that with less excess pesos on the street, the chances of maintaining a bullish route are difficult.
The average price fell another 1.9% (from $ 38.46 to $ 37.72 for wholesale and
from 39.54 to 38.80 US dollars to the public) at the end of the business round is shorter than usual (according to G-20, the activity was completed two hours before) and after focusing

central bank

(BCRA) his commitment to tight contractual monetary policy, not only in operational, but also in strict order.

Thus, the ticket scored the third wheel in a consistent decline and accumulated an average retreat of 3.4% in that period, after it entered into action very close to $ 40 on Monday and threatened to return to the maximum levels that had been touched to begin. the era of Sandleris. However, this did not stop him, however, the closing of the week (today the markets are not valid for the national holiday) with an increase of 0.2% and accumulate in November with a recovery of 5%.

The decline began when the monetary unit decided to redouble its efforts to remove the peso from the market by testing last week for weakening in December (the month of high seasonal demand for money), allowing disarmament

Lebac

(which allowed the release of $ 120,000 million) added an additional injection of $ 78,000 million for partial resumption of debt on letters of liquidity (Leliq), which have expired.

But after checking that this relaxation caused an almost 7% average jump in currency in just two days, he decided to sue for another opportunity.

"This week they won $ 469.267 million in Leliq and received new letters for 583,867 million dollars, that is, they swallowed up more than 105,000 million dollars without a higher exchange rate, which on average fell from 61.40 to 60.75% per year . free of charge: Leliq shares reached $ 718,711 million, and the interest bill, which this week amounted to $ 6,300 million, will exceed $ 9,500 million next week, ”said financial analyst Christian Butelleur.

“This week, unlike the previous one, this was clearly a deterrent: BCRA absorbed about half of what it had increased in the previous week, and the dollar retreated from what was moving even at the base rate a little bit down. to show that to reduce speed without affecting the dollar, the BCRA should be tedious with handling the amount of pesos, ”said economist Gabriel Caameno from a study of Ledesma.

A strong leap in bills between last Friday and Monday caused alarm in the government, which began to use the “honey” of the stabilized market (the end of the run stopped the fall of the image of Macri) and was prepared to capitalize it, urging oil companies to reduce fuel prices , although in the coming days the level of domestic taxes will increase.

The easing test, aimed at achieving a higher rate cut after the release of the BCRA (next week), to remove the floor 60%, set preventively to demonstrate commitment to its goals. And thus create the feeling that the worst of the crisis begins to be left behind.

But the dollar's reaction forced the BCRA to revise the plans. "Inflation remains high, and our currency still over-reacts to internal and external shocks," admitted the day before yesterday

Guido Sandleris

, when exposed to the Council of the Americas. “We are aware of the risks facing our economy, so we will only increase the monetary base, if conditions allow,” he said, leaving in doubt that he uses the prerogative he has in agreement with

IMF

to increase the monetary base by 6% in December. “We will do this only if we see that the increase in the demand for money is not what we planned,” he said.

Neither the G-20 helps recover debt bonds.

Bonds

Argentine debt

they will not be able to recover, despite the signals that the United States Federal Reserve has issued in recent days, recognizing that it can suspend its policy of a slight but steady increase in the base rates for this economy. “There is no demand, so they cut 25 cents in the middle section and 50 in the long part of the curve, so they accumulate losses from 1.5% to 2% over the course of the week,” the report said. , SBS groups. Due to this weakness, the level of country risks remains above 700 points (closed at 704), despite the fact that the indicator level (set by the rate that gives a 10-year US bond) fell another 1% yesterday. , accounting for 3.03%.


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