Dollar cost ends with overt weakness first month of 2019. During the period currency gave more than 2% and The reappearance of securities as a buyer Forex was zero consequences in the evolution of the type of change.
This is a market much more fed liquidation exports, with a leading supply of record wheat yield, as well as re-entry of funds that are converted to pesos take advantage of high interest rates and very low valuations of domestic stocks and bonds determine that the dollar has little demand in area that works about 800 million usd a day, infrequent volume in the first month of the year.
Diego Martinez BurzacoMB Inversiones analyst said that “the external financial situation is one that givesand ejaculation of capital inflowsMostly to Brazil and to the Arctic. ”
In branches National Bank US currency sold $ 37.90, with a fall from 50 cents to 1.3 percent. This is the lowest price since December 3 last year. AT average banks of the city of buenos aires are invited 38.05 pesos,
Like throughout January, the Central Bank made purchases of foreign currency on the wholesale market – an initiative that has not occurred since June 2017. This Thursday he purchased others 50 million US dollars at an average price of 37.0896 pesos. Thus, in the first month of the year, purchases of $ 560 million were accumulated, within imposed by agreement support with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), about 700 million US dollars per month.
The monetary entity offered to buy out currencies as soon as the wholesale price becomes lower floor of non-interference zonethat this Thursday is celebrated $ 37.86and $ 37,886 for February 1.
from Research for traders "The goal of the BCRA is to change the exchange rate within free floating strip will change, and therefore the market expects that the subject between today and tomorrow will determine if you increase the number of daily purchases from USD 50 million to 150 million US dollars create greater demand for foreign currency. "
Martinez Burzaco said Infobae that “the central bank should consider using additional tools for maintaining the exchange rate in the zone of non-interference, for example, allowing banks gradually change their exposure to foreign currency within its net worth, which today is 0 percent. "
Martinez Burzaco noted that "Central accelerate interest rate cuts and do the work of fine surgery to measure Market sensitivityso that fixed time margin don't go to the dollar in a significant way, "in particular" in election year in which at some point dollarization will accelerate portfolios. "
while they were reduced by more than 4 percentage points in January below 55% per yearthey are still quite high slow down reactivation economy and they are ballast for possible lifting dollar, a conservative position that in this framework can not compete with such a return in local currency. In the same time strong performance and a “calm exchange rate” today are crucial for slow down inflation,
Economist MB Inversiones also noted "Tate reserve requirements banks because BCRA could open this liquidity tap to allow a reduction in the value of money and stop paying for some lace. "From the moment of arrival Guido Sandleris The central bank of the subject allows banks to integrate shoelaces with LELIQ encourage them to continue taking deposits. Thus, “banks will return to their role of natural financial intermediation,” said Martinez Burzaco.
Unsustainable evolution of the exchange rate in recent months, today 2% below free floating band, add tension when it is believed that inflation maintained at a significant pace despite his gradual descent.
Green ticket reached September 28th recordof $ 41.85 for sale to the public and $ 41.25 wholesalerA movement that many analysts see as exaggerated. Since then in the last four months, the dollar has lost 10%while during this period, average retail prices rose by almost 14 percent.
Therefore the dollar in argentina lost purchasing power by 21.1% between October and Januarywhen all other financial alternatives offered positive returns.
Of course, exchange competitiveness It depends not only on the dollar. strengthening other currencies commercial partners for the North American currency mitigates this perceived “exchange rate delay” limited to a very short period.
For example, Brazil lost 9% in Brazilfrom 4.01 reais from September 28 to 3.65 this Thursday. In this sense, the Argentine peso was accompanied by the currency of its main trading partner.
We also should not lose sight of the fact that the price of a dollar in Argentina today is 90% higher than a year ago when it closed January 2018 from a wholesaler of $ 19.65 and a retailer of $ 19.93 . what the level has almost doubled to the rate of inflation annual 47 percent.
According to the Multilateral Real Exchange Rate Index (ITCRM) central bank, current Argentine Peso competitive advantage similar to January 2014 and September 2011and 15% higher than December 17, 2015when the administration Mauricio Macri eliminated exchange controls or “cepo”.