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Star of summer: why the stock market in January rose by 20% in dollars

During 2018, Argentine assets were in a group of emerging markets that were punished by capital outflows in anticipation of rising interest rates in the United States. Moreover, they led the group, the Argentine peso depreciated by a little more than 100%. In the stock market, this exchange turbulence has generated 50% loss of the value of Merval during 2018.

So far in January, the month that left the wheel today to mark the official closing, the leading stock exchange group ( S & P Merval) rose to 36,039 points. As for the starting point of the year, when the total quotation of private stocks reached 30,292 pieces, an increase of 18.9%. In dollars, this jump was 19.7 percent,

Analysts point out that in the current context of "good financial news" consisting of a stable exchange rate, low interest rates and country risk, which for the most part of the month showed a fall, Merval data stands out as a star. While this summer mainly motivated by external factors.

Yesterday's wheel closure was marked by a 1.5% increase on Tuesday, led by growth in the Supervielle Group (4.19%), Aluar (3.49%), ByMA (2.83%), French Bank (2.54 %) and Tenaris (2.29%), according to Argentine stock exchanges and markets.

At the same time, Argentine ADRs, shareholding certificates listed on Wall Street showed a similar increase on the foreign market: Supervielle (3.8%) and MercadoLibre (3.1%).

“Argentina is associated with improved markets, as can be seen from the international scenario. January for developing countries in general was a very good start to the year. caused by the announcement of the United States Federal Reserve rates, "he explained. Fernando Baer, ​​Quantum Finanzas AnalystThe latest publications from the US monetary department raise expectations on the international market in 2019 with a smaller increase in base rates.

In this sense improved conditions for emerging markets had an additional factor for Argentina in connection with the adoption of Zhair Bolsonaro for the presidency of Brazilaccording to Christian Buteler, from Buteler Servicios FinancierosThe analyst expects that the Bolsonaro effect will have a positive impact on the region after 2018, in which Latin America was one of the most affected areas.

Among other variables, positive international influence can be observed in the downward trend that country risk showed during the first weeks of January, despite the fact that in the last three wheels the premium applied to sovereign bonds showed an increase. "Generally, there is usually a negative correlation between country risk and the cost of merval: when one rises, the other tends to fall, and vice versa, "commented Amilcar Collante of CESUR (Center for Economic Research of the South).

The economist considered that the country risk associated with a decrease is beneficial to large companies with access to international markets. Many of which are listed in the S & P Merval. "Now we are in the process of returning to the middle, while the market was expecting a decline and is now doing the same, rising," added Collante.

Analysts do not exclude a possible fracture, as the political factor, that is, the presidential election, is beginning to weigh more. “At the domestic level, macroeconomic problems have not disappeared,” concluded Buteler, “except for the type of changes that have leveled off, there have been no major changes.”

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