Expected in December monetary expansion may not be as generous as originally agreed with the IMF. This was announced yesterday by the head of the Central Bank, Guido Sandleris, in a closing speech presented at the meeting that the Council of America organized at the G20 summit.
“Just as we exceeded our target of the monetary base in recent months, we could have done the same in December if we understood that the increase in money demand was not what we expected”– the official assured.
The agreement with the Fund establishes the goal of zero monetary expansion, but in December it becomes much weaker. Next month, growth is expected to reach 60%, which implies the introduction of an additional $ 70,000 million to the market. USA. This is due to the fact that at the end of the year, the demand for money is growing due to the need for companies to pay wages, half of the bonus, and now the bonus.
Sandleris wants to demonstrate the steady behavior of the Central in relation to control over monetary aggregates. The goal is very clear: to avoid sudden jumps in the dollar and at the same time push inflation down.
The movement of the currency, which has grown by almost 10% since the beginning of the month, to reach about $ 40, has led to greater sharpness on the part of the BCRA. Over the past two days, he paid off over $ 60,000 million to stop the exchange rate escalation. Of course, indirectly, this also slowed the decline in the Leliq interest rate, which now slightly exceeded 61%.
The head of the BCRA was satisfied with the result achieved with the debut of the new scheme of monetary aggregates. And he announced that “High-frequency indicators” are beginning to show a decrease in inflation in November. It is estimated that this month the index will be slightly below 3%, which is almost half as much as in previous months.
In addition, he also stressed that the most competitive exchange rate allowed the country to receive in September “The first commercial surplus in 21 months”.
"There is still much to do. This Central Bank, ”concluded Sandleris,“ will be very cautious in the coming months, aware of the risks facing its economy. We will only increase the monetary base if conditions allow. ”