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Naphtha price growth forecast by 25%



As for market benchmarks, next year the growth will correspond to the growth demonstrated by the dollar, oil and inflation.

The announcements about the increase in electricity and public transport tariffs that were announced this Thursday in the Treasury complicate what economists consider the balance between finding lower inflation and rates for a calmer dollar for next year.

A gradual increase in traffic will reach 38% between December and March. With regard to electricity, by August 2019, the confirmed increase will lead to a jump of 55% compared to the beginning of 2019, while the change in gas tariffs will be 35% in April.

"The combination of the three components suggests that in 2019 regulated tariffs will increase by an average of about 40%with a general effect of inflation of about 4 percentage points and a note of disinflation resistance, ”explained Federico Furias, director of Eco Go.

In this context It was known that naphtha could rise by 25% more during the first semester of 2019.

From the Minister of Energy of the nation, who until Friday commanded Javier Iguasel, they believe that with a dozen increases, which registered fuel this year, they have already attacked a good part of the backwardness shown by the sector.

In the same time, heads of state-owned YPF share the diagnosis: they close 2018 with price increases that have managed to pay off debt that they beat with their feet, and this ends with a balance point, which will make it possible to look at 2019 differently, in accordance with the slogan of the profile.

Based on this table, market experts estimated that next yearThe increase to be tested will more closely match the growth of the dollar, crude oil, and how inflation can move.

The Federation of Fuel and Allied Products Center of the Republic (Fecac) document laid the foundation for estimating how naphtha prices could change in 2019.

Taking into account the value of future contracts for the dollar (Rofex) and Brent oil (Nymex), as well as adjustments for inflation of taxes on fuel and carbon dioxide, and assuming that prices for biofuels will remain unchanged at the level set in November, theoretical values ​​of liquid fuel will increase by 25% until next June.

“I think that next year we will lag behind inflation, but the positive thing is that we will have more stable growth. We will not have the delay we achieved in 2018. Since the release of prices, which was in October 2017, the price has stabilized, but then all the indices jumped, the dollar jumped, oil jumped, and we were very much in the opposite direction. I think 2019 will be a year of logical and predictable growth."Analyzed Gabriel Bornoroni, president of the organization, whose headquarters is in Cordoba.

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