For peso devaluation and heavy debt, domestic and external public debt in pesos and foreign currencyAdded to September 30 last 307 656 million US dollarswhich is equivalent to 95.4% of GDP. If we consider what else is needed for the coupon PBI, then it is $ 320.955 million and goes to 99.5% of GDPIn other words, the national public debt – without taking into account the debt of the provinces and the BCRA – represents the entire GDP.
Official figures are taken from the “Preliminary Report” of the Minister of Finance, published in the last hours.
A year ago, the national debt was 53.41% of GDP, and the coupon of GDP was 55.8%. The jump occurred because a sharp devaluation reduced the value in dollars of GDP and debt in pesos. As of the end of 2017, GDP was estimated at 540,000 million US dollars, and after 9 months Finance estimates it at 322,500 million US dollars. 40% drop in dollars,
For this reason, although the government continued to borrow in pesos and in foreign currency denominated in dollars, the debt remained almost at the same level as a year ago, and even decreased compared to the second quarter. But with no less detail: for 12 months, debt to government institutions was devalued in dollars, as in the case of ANSeS, by $ 21,864 million. US for a large share of assets in pesos, and arrears increased from private funds ($ 8,388 million) and international organizations (US $ 15,424 million), especially for the first payment to the IMF.
In a document in June last year in support of mutual understanding with Argentina, the IMF expected that public debt could grow from 57.1 to 64.5% of GDP this year, and then start down the road. And under the “unfavorable scenario,” it may close at the end of the year at 68.6% of GDP. In the second survey, conducted in December, the IMF raised this forecast at the end of 2018 to 78% of GDP, without taking into account that the decline in the value of the dollar from September to December more than compensates for the large debt to the international body itself.
In proportion to GDP, the total public debt since 2011 has been characterized by an upward trend due to the cumulative effect of the stagnation of the economy, increasing debt and rising dollar value. Excluding the PBI coupon, it rose from 38.9% in 2011 to 52.6% in 2015, to 53.3% in 2016, 57.1% in 2017 and now in the third quarter of 2018 to 95.4 %
If the comparison will be continued at the end of 2005, after the first exchange of debts, when it amounted to 154,270 million US dollars, government debt in dollars doubled: it grew by 153,386 million US dollars,
In pesos, in one year, the total amount doubled, which led to the fact that the state collected more pesos – due to increased taxes and cuts in public works, wages, pensions, etc. dollars to meet interest payments and debt repayment.
In turn, the debt went to "dollarization". Of the total number of contracts, 79% were concluded in foreign currency (for example, in dollars or euros) and 21% in national currency. In 2005, this share was 58.9 / 41.1%. In 2015, this share was 69.3 / 30.7%.
The report of the Ministry of Finance states that, in the case of a creditor’s consideration, $ 120,705 million. United States, or 39.2% of $ 307,656 million. US, debt to the Central Bank, ANSeS and other government agencies.
With international organizations such as the IMF, the IDB, or the World Bank, this amounts to $ 43,219 million, representing 14% of the total. The private sector represents 44.6% or $ 143,733 million in various financial instruments, such as bonds and letters,