According to the famous consultant, the next year will not have good expectations.
December 29, 2018
The level of economic activity in 2018 shows negative behavior from the second quarter, and a change in this trend is not expected in the short term.
This was pointed out by the consultant “Economy and Regions” (E & R), predicting that the first quarter of 2019 will follow the same path and will also be “complicated by the level of activity that will continue to suffer.”
“Then, in the best of scenarios, the best that can be expected is for the economy to stop falling, and positive (slightly warm) numbers will appear starting from the second quarter of 2019,” the report's authors note.
However, “this would be more statistical than tangible improvement for companies, that is, companies (especially SMEs) will not experience a sustained improvement in their thermal sensations,” they said.
However, “if a new round of exchange begins in the second half of the summer, and the dollar, inflation, inflationary expectations and interest rates rise again, the level of activity may continue to fall further in 2019”.
“Our baseline scenario estimates and predicts a change in GDP in the range of -3.0% (2018) and -1.5% (2019).” In this sense, we must bear in mind that if GDP closes at -3, 0% this year, the declared productivity will leave statistical resistance of -3.1%, which means that the statistical backpack will be very difficult to counteract and cope with the next year ”, – they added.
He estimates that the level of activity at the end of 2019 will be about 3.7 percentage points lower than the level of activity at the end of 2015.
It should be borne in mind that the level of activity does not have where to “hold on” in order to experience a jump or a strong recovery in 2019, ”experts at E & R rated.
They warned that "private sector lending will remain scarce, interest rates will remain high during 2019, even under the most optimistic scenario."
“On the other hand, if a new round of exchange arises, and the dollar returns to a jump (a phenomenon that cannot be ruled out), inflationary expectations will rise again, inflation will jump out again, and the interest rate will still end on a higher threshold. upgraded to current and registered in October last year, "they added.
For the economy and regions, "in this scenario there will be less loans and more expensive than at present, the level of activity will suffer more than predicted."