If 2018 had a constant year, it means that since May the year was bad for everyone. What will happen in the new year? Economists and business consultants agree that it will be more heterogeneous and will produce different results depending on each quarter, each region of the country, each sector and each company.
In fact, few dare to make predictions for the future, but in the world of consultants it is “felt” that recovery will be slow, uneven and that it will depend on several factors.
Juan Pablo Ronderos, commercial director of Abeceb, who passed through this city, called the Chamber of Foreign Trade (Cacec), believes that the government has stabilized the economy, but at the expense of less activity, which will close the year 2.4 percent lower than 2017
For the consultant, the next quarter will be as bad as this year; the second will start to show reactivation in several sectors, and after the middle of the year growth will be more uniform.
This will mean another 0.5 percent decline in the economy by 2019, even if the main deficit is closed, the gap in the current account will decrease, inflation will slow down and the interest rate will be reduced, all in the context of social tension and election policy .
“The government has no fiscal opportunities, and it has very little money for an active policy. It all depends on private activities, ”emphasizes Ronderos.
The first to stimulate recovery is expected to be the agricultural sector, which in Cordoba promises 38 percent more harvest in 2017/2018. However, for Juan Manuel Garson, chief economist at Ieral, the spill will be limited.
"There are four months left before the harvest. In the province the previous was 25 million tons. If the weather goes along, there will be another 10 million tons more, which will give from 1,500 to 2,000 million dollars more, which will gradually increase the economy of Cordoba by three points, starting from April or May, ”he explains.
It should be borne in mind that prices fell by an average of 10 percent compared to 2017, that two million of the expected 10 million tons of wheat were lost, and that the manufacturer operates with working capital very late, so it will be Strict in upgrading equipment and purchasing resources , and conservative in other investments.
The agro-industrial complex will register even more heterogeneous indicators. “Exporting companies will have a good year 2019. But not everything depends on the competitiveness of the exchange rate. Today, refrigerators sold abroad are limited, for example, by the absence of animals, ”he adds.
Another factor is the ability of President-elect of Brazil, Jera Bolsonaro, to rebuild his economy, which is key to the Argentine industry, since there he allocates 40 percent of his exports.
According to Abeceb, Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow from 1.2 to 1.4 percent this year to 2.5 percent in 2019.
“Brazil’s GDP is five points lower than the peak of 2014, so without a recovery in investment, it can grow only if it has lost. In addition, the Brazilian consumes and buys cars because he did not do this for a long time and because he has financing at low interest rates, which was not often, ”adds Ronderos.
The government encourages parities in 2019, with an increase of 23 percent plus a revised position, as it predicts this inflation.
The central bank is very slowly reducing the interest rate and has no right to change its limited monetary policy. In addition, the Ministry of Economy does not reduce tax pressure by promising a zero deficit.
Therefore, we should not expect the consumer to restore the lost purchasing power this year. He will be able to recover only by the end of 2019, if inflation is below two percent per month.
Therefore, restoring industries and enterprises that depend on the domestic market will be tedious, and they will have to pay attention to changing global trends.
“Traditional trade is in trouble. Millennials and Centennials They do not like to go to the mall or hypermarket to shop, as in the 90s. They visit places that offer them unforgettable impressions, and spend more on leisure, gastronomy, travel, health care and education, ”says Oscar Picardo, president of 1Por1, a specialized consultation for consumers.
This year, many balances have closed negative. To restore them, companies work inside. According to Alberto Asencio, a PWC partner in charge of offices in Cordoba, Mendoza and Rosario, the battle is “by district” and is different in each company.
"In human resources, they carefully analyze each association in accordance with the strategic plan, and no meaningless plans are observed." In tax matters, all those who have accumulated tax breaks use this to finance themselves, ”the specialist says.
He adds that the international consulting company “doubled” during this year the number of cases of adjustments to the inflation of companies' accounts in order to avoid paying inflationary rents.
“The key is to reduce fixed costs, for example, to stay with more stock; prefer to load it with promotions or offers to take loans at 70 percent to support the product. This, which is happening with greater fame in the automotive industry, is repeated in other areas, ”he says.
The process of digitization in the companies put the handbrake, but it was not reversed. Therefore, the members of Córdoba Technology Cluster (CTC) will end the year with growth close to 10 percent, five points less than they expected.
With 13,000 jobs and nearly 400 companies with a turnover of about $ 600 million, exports amount to $ 80 million, which explains part of this growth.
“Promotion in foreign markets will be noticeable in 2019. Until December 2017, the sector was not competitive. On the other hand, this year many companies came out to look for markets abroad in order to compensate for losses in the country, ”emphasizes Diego Casali, president of the CTC.
In the domestic market, he adds, it is expected that companies will resume their projects from March or April.
To this he designs: “Artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, robotics and blockchain they allow you to automate lines, reduce costs and optimize processes, so companies are already implementing this; the repayment period will be reached between 2019 and 2020 ".
Argentina and Brazil forecasts
Abeceb forecasts for both countries.
2.4% This is what the Argentine economy will fall this year with widespread losses in all sectors of activity.
0.5% This is what the national economy will reduce in 2019, with a bad first semester and a second, during which activity will recover.
2.5% This is what Brazil will grow in 2019. This year it will grow from 1.2 to 1.4 percent. This progress is key to the Argentine industry.
The original text of this article was published on December 30, 2008 in our print version.